Predicting the US election, or not?
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The issue of the day for the markets remains predicting the outcome of the US election on November 5th. For investors with an interest in sustainable investing, a Harris presidency would undoubtedly have the effect of propelling several of our themes with a fiscal and regulatory tailwind. That said, while interesting in theory and despite a multitude of quantitative tools and polls available online, we believe it makes little sense at this time to position the portfolio according to which of the candidates between Trump and Harris could win. Here is our reasoning:
1. There are still seven key states where the polls show the candidates neck and neck in the polls;
2. Of these, only Pennsylvania has a number of electors whose votes could tip the final balance between the Democratic and Republican parties in the presidential election;
3. According to SilverBulletin, a US polling aggregator, Kamala Harris' current 1.2 percentage point lead over Donald Trump in voting intentions for the Presidential election in Pennsylvania remains within the margin of error of the polls, making the outcome unpredictable.
4. As a result, we will maintain a defensive posture until the election is over.
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